The moneyline is the most direct bet in sports: you pick who wins. There is no point spread to cover and no total to think about. If your side wins the game, the bet wins. The only complication is reading the odds, which in American markets come with a plus or minus sign that tells you both who the favourite is and how much a winning bet returns.
The minus sign: the favourite
A negative number shows how much you would need to stake to make 100 units of profit. In a hypothetical game where Team A is listed at −150, a 150-unit bet would make 100 units of profit if Team A wins, returning 250 in total. A 30-unit bet would make 20. The larger the negative number, the stronger the favourite and the less you earn for each unit risked.
The plus sign: the underdog
A positive number shows the profit on a 100-unit stake. If Team B in the same hypothetical game is listed at +130, a 100-unit bet would make 130 units of profit if Team B wins, returning 230. A 20-unit bet would make 26. The higher the positive number, the less likely the market considers that outcome.
Reading the price as a probability
Every moneyline price can be turned into an implied probability, the chance the price suggests before you apply any judgement of your own.
- For a negative price, divide the number (without the sign) by itself plus 100. At −150 that is 150 ÷ 250, or 60%.
- For a positive price, divide 100 by the number plus 100. At +130 that is 100 ÷ 230, or about 43.5%.
Add those two figures together and you get roughly 103.5%, not 100%. The extra is the operator's margin, often called the vig or juice. It is the reason someone who picked at random would lose money over time, and it is worth checking on every market you look at.
Converting to decimal and fractional odds
Outside North America, the same prices are usually shown in decimal or fractional form. They describe exactly the same thing.
| American | Decimal | Fractional | Profit on a 10-unit stake |
|---|---|---|---|
| −200 | 1.50 | 1/2 | 5.00 |
| −150 | 1.67 | 4/6 | 6.67 |
| +100 | 2.00 | 1/1 (evens) | 10.00 |
| +130 | 2.30 | 13/10 | 13.00 |
All prices in the table are examples to show the conversion, not real market odds.
Moneylines in different sports
In baseball and ice hockey, where games are often decided by a single run or goal, the moneyline is a natural way to bet because spreads are small. In basketball and American football, spreads get more attention, but moneylines are offered on almost every game. In soccer a draw is a real possibility, so the market usually comes as a three-way line: home, draw, away. A two-way soccer line may exist too, with house rules explaining what happens if the match ends level. Many of the most popular soccer bets are built around exactly this result market.
Check also whether a moneyline covers regulation time only or includes overtime and extra time. The rules section of each market tells you.
Favourite or underdog?
Neither side is safer in any meaningful sense. A heavy favourite wins more often but pays little, so one upset can wipe out several small wins. An underdog pays more but loses more often. What matters is whether the price fairly reflects the chance of the outcome, and nobody can know that for certain in advance. Once winners and losers make sense, the next step is usually totals, explained in our guide to what over/under means in betting.
Before you place one
- Make sure online sports betting is legal where you are, and use a licensed operator.
- Decide on a stake before you look at the odds, not after.
- Do not raise your stake because a favourite looks certain. Upsets happen every week.
- Keep a short record of your bets so you can see what you are really spending.
Bet with a clear head: you must be of legal age, and the money you stake should be money you can comfortably lose. If you notice you are betting more often, or with more than you planned, pause and reassess.
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